Recently, a private gathering under Chatham House rules gathered industry professionals in order to tackle a looming threat to Bitcoin: quantum computing.
Fred Krueger, a prominent figure in the crypto space, shared key insights from the discussion on X, highlighting the urgent need for Bitcoin to adapt to a post-quantum world.
Post Quantum Bitcoin world.
Attended a private lunch with 100 or so top industry people. Chattam house rules, so can't disclose names.
But here's the download
1. The likely solution will be a hard fork.
2. The fate of P2PK address does not need be "confiscation". An… pic.twitter.com/5wrpZZHn3Y
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) May 28, 2025
The session underscored growing concerns about quantum computers’ potential to undermine Bitcoin’s security, a topic that has gained traction as quantum technology advances.
Bitcoin’s security hinges on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which ensures only the rightful owner can spend their coins.
However, a Deloitte report on quantum computers and the Bitcoin blockchain warns that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break ECDSA using Shor’s algorithm.
Developed in 1994 by mathematician Peter Shor, this algorithm can derive a private key from a public key, potentially allowing attackers to forge signatures and steal Bitcoin from wallets with exposed public keys.
This vulnerability particularly threatens P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key) addresses, where public keys are directly visible on the blockchain, making them easy targets for quantum attacks.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm, used for mining, is more resistant to quantum threats.
According to a Wikipedia entry on post-quantum cryptography, Grover’s algorithm could provide quantum computers a quadratic speed-up in mining, reducing the difficulty from 2²⁵⁶ to 2¹²⁸.
While this isn’t an existential risk like Shor’s algorithm, it could still give quantum-equipped miners an unfair advantage, disrupting Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been addressing these concerns since 2017, with the HQC algorithm selected for standardization on March 11, 2025.
This global push for quantum-resistant cryptography signals the urgency of preparing for quantum advancements.
However, the Bitcoin community faces a unique challenge due to its decentralized nature, which often slows down network upgrades.
At the lunch, industry leaders proposed a hard fork as a likely solution to transition Bitcoin to quantum-resistant cryptography.
A hard fork would create a new blockchain incompatible with the old one, forcing all users to upgrade.
To mitigate risks during this transition, an “hourglass” approach was suggested, which would rate-limit the transfer of coins from vulnerable P2PK addresses to new quantum-resistant ones over eight months.
This method aims to buy time and spread out the risk of mass coin theft.
A significant concern raised was the lack of “canaries”—early warning signs of a quantum breakthrough.
Without public progress on large-scale quantum computers, the Bitcoin community might not realize the threat until significant damage occurs, leaving a “crater the size of New York,” as Krueger metaphorically described.
This fear is compounded by rumored “harvest now, decrypt later” programs, where adversaries collect encrypted data today to decrypt it once quantum computers become viable.
To address this, the session participants called on major financial players like Fidelity and BlackRock to fund a technical think tank to develop a consensus solution.
These institutional investors, heavily exposed to Bitcoin, have a vested interest in ensuring its long-term security.
However, the Bitcoin community remains divided.
Some, like Hunter Beast on X, advocate for a soft fork, which would maintain backward compatibility, while others see a hard fork as inevitable to address both security and node incentive issues in a post-quantum world.
Despite the looming threat, there’s still time to prepare.
Estimates suggest large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking ECDSA are 10-20 years away.
Projects like QANplatform, a quantum-resistant Layer 1 blockchain, are already targeting the business market with hybrid solutions, showing proactive steps in the industry.
Additionally, the rise of plug-and-play Bitcoin node solutions like Umbrel and Start9 could ease the adoption of quantum-resistant upgrades by simplifying node operation.
The road ahead for Bitcoin is uncertain, but the conversation sparked at this gathering highlights the need for swift, coordinated action to safeguard the world’s leading cryptocurrency against the quantum future.
As Krueger noted, failure to act could lead to a “black pill” moment—where Bitcoin’s survival hangs in the balance.