The CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by reported volume, says delusions of grandeur fed by bullish crypto markets in 2017 are about to disperse, and massive, overdue sell off of altcoins and Ethereum could sink Ethereum’s price to double digits in the near term.
The unequivocal Hayes makes the comments in the BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest in a post titled, “Ether, A Double Digit Shitcoin.”
“One of the first things you learn as an Asia Pacific trader: how you exit a position is more important than how you enter,” Arthur Hayes writes early in the post.
The problem is, says Hayes, most crypto VCs are neophytes who don’t know how to do a healthy exit, and there are less and less people willing to be caught holding the bag:
“(VCs) don’t have the mental strength to cut positions to limit further losses, or backup the truck and buy opportune dips even though they are down. More importantly, LPs can now see an objective last price for a particular token, and can’t be hoodwinked.”
Hayes describes the early part of his career spent trading in “Mickey Mouse” emerging markets like Vietnam, Indonesia and China, where restrictions meant that trades could only be entered and exited slowly.
Local regulations could also be changed on a whim, leaving politically unconnected traders high and dry.
“I became obsessed with how to get out of any position: a trait which serves me well in the crypto markets,” writes Hayes.
The pleasant climes of 2017 bull markets in crypto have contributed to the general foolishness of VCs, “as green as the noob who thinks he or she can go from 1 to 100 Bitcoin in a few trading days”:
“The point of my sermon is that most VC investors do not approach their investments with this (healthy, conservative) mentality. Due to the illiquidity of their investments, they can mark to fantasy, show amazing returns on paper, and get paid. The only secondary market validation of their investments is the next round of fundraising, which can easily always go up if you get your boys to go in along with you. You pump my bags, I’ll pump yours…They used these eye-popping returns to raise bigger shitcoin funds in 2017, and early 2018.”
2017’s relatively easy profits, incestuous raises and general exuberance, says Hayes, have left many unwilling to the see the bearish writing on the wall in present day markets.
Those features, combined with lack of meaningful exit strategy by are creating a perfect storm whereby overdue sell offs could soon tank the price of altcoins, including Ethereum:
“It is this moment, that Ether goes from a 3-digit to a 2-digit shitcoin.”
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